As demand for aviation roars back generally—and for passenger airline services in particular—demand for aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) is rapidly rising. Now, a long-feared AMT shortage has arrived, according to experts and industry forecasts, and is not expected to get better anytime soon.

This year marks the beginning of a prolonged shortage of AMTs that could have a sweeping impact, especially for airlines needing to keep aircraft in the air to meet growing passenger demand, according to management consultancy Oliver Wyman, which regularly surveys the aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector.

“While the possibility of an aviation mechanics shortage has been discussed for years, the industry in North America is finally expected to face one in 2023,” Oliver Wyman found in a recent look at the industry. “The wave of aging baby boomers and not enough Generation Z workers are being felt in yet another labor sector.”

Oliver Wyman’s most recent Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast anticipates “a shortfall of somewhere between 12,000 and 18,000 aviation maintenance workers [in 2023 in North America]. The imbalance between supply and demand will persist and even worsen over the next 10 years. It is likely to result in fewer flights and delays and cancellations, or airlines having to compensate by keeping more spare aircraft and parts on hand.”

The supply of new AMTs “is flat and it has been flat for a long time,” Crystal Maguire, executive director of the Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC), told Avionics International. “With the trends we're looking at moving forward—the number of folks retiring [and robust and growing passenger demand]—the gap is just going to widen.”

ATEC’s latest Pipeline Report, which tracks the number of rising AMTs, said that the industry will need at least 20% more maintenance technicians than are currently being trained to meet projected workforce demand.

Boeing, in its 2022–2041 Pilot and Technician Outlook, predicts 610,000 new aviation technicians will be needed globally through 2041, about a third of which will be needed in the U.S. “to meet demand from fleet operators and providers of maintenance, repair and overhaul services.”

“The combination of fleet growth, attrition and replacement will continue to drive high demand for [AMTs for] the foreseeable future,” according to Boeing’s outlook.

Over the last six months, the AMT shortage “got really real, really fast,” Joel English, executive vice president of the Aviation Institute of Maintenance, told Avionics International. An already aging AMT workforce saw a slew of early retirements during the COVID-19 pandemic, which pushed a pending shortage into an actual shortfall. The Aviation Institute of Maintenance is an umbrella organization managing 14 FAA-certified AMT school campuses across the U.S.

“So, there was this shortage pending and, well, what happens when all the retirements happen? When COVID hit, most of the airlines did early retirements to just about everybody they could, including mechanics,” English said.

Compounding the pending shortage was the pandemic-related drop-off in new AMTs entering the workforce. ATEC estimated that the pandemic cost the industry 5,000 new mechanics.

As a result, even after the pandemic retirements, the AMT workforce remains older. “By 2031, two out of every five current mechanics [in the U.S.]—more than 90,000 mechanics in total—will reach retirement age,” the ATEC report said.

Oliver Wyman’s projected worst-case forecast would see a shortage of 48,000 aircraft maintenance workers—a shortfall around 27%—by 2027 in North America. “Our more likely scenario predicts a gap of almost 43,000, or more than 24%” by 2027, ATEC said.

An Attractive Career

While MRO providers and airlines struggle to hire enough maintenance personnel, the shortage has created an attractive opportunity for young people interested in a career in aviation maintenance.

“What do I say to somebody who's thinking about [going into aviation maintenance]? My answer is there are employers lined up to hire our two-year aviation students and they go to work making $55,000-$60,000 a year,” English said.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median salary for an AMT in the U.S. in 2021 was over $65,000, including a high of more than $83,000 in the state of Connecticut. Those salaries are expected to continue increasing.

Airlines and MRO providers “just keep raising wages,” Maguire said. “You'll eventually start attracting more folks if wages continue to climb.”

A number of airlines—including American Airlines, regional Piedmont Airlines and low-cost carrier Allegiant Airlines—are starting to partially subsidize AMT education (typically costing around $12,000 in total) in exchange for students signing commitments to go work for the airline providing financial assistance.

“Airlines are saying, ‘We need your graduates and we need them fast.’ It's turned out to be wonderful for our students,” English said. “Airlines are helping students pay for their tuition with a written agreement that they'll come to work for the airline afterwards. It reduces tuition cost, reduces the student loan debt that our students have and gives students the great news that you have a job waiting for you when you graduate.”

Even with such incentives, the AMT shortage is not subsiding. “The bad part is that the airlines are still struggling to fill” their need for mechanics, English said. But airlines will find paying upfront tuition costs will pay off, he added.

“Obviously, any company would rather be able to choose from graduates rather than pay upfront, but the reason it actually does make financial sense is airlines were having to pay moving expenses and convince students to move to where airlines have a need and give sign-on bonuses,” he said. “Whereas the students [receiving] tuition-cost help [commit to] sign on with an airline, so the airline can put what was the sign-on bonus toward tuition.”

And AMTs receiving financial help with school will have a reduced college loan debt, “so it’s better, when it comes down to it, for all parties,” English said.

English and Maguire both say MRO providers and airlines need to have outreach programs in which high school, or even younger, students are introduced to the prospect of a potential career in aviation maintenance.

“What we’ve found is that young people rarely think about the possibility of becoming a pilot or aircraft technician because the job seems exotic or beyond their reach,” English said. “But we know that there is a clear pathway to these careers.”

Maguire agreed, saying, “A lot of folks say it’s not just about high school, it’s also about [reaching out to] middle school and elementary school students, which I would not disagree with.”

ATEC and other organizations are looking to team up with high schools to build pathways to aviation maintenance careers, perhaps starting in ninth grade. The message to prospective students is first and foremost a financial one.

“You’re coming out of school and you’re making as much as $65,000–$70,000 a year and you are on a path to a six-figure [annual salary] career. So, for us, that is a pretty easy story to tell, especially when we're in front of [students’] parents,” Maguire stated.

FAA Regulatory Change

A new rule implemented last year by the FAA revising Part 147 regulations governing AMT schools will also likely help move aviation maintenance students into jobs more quickly and, according to the agency, allow schools to use curriculums that align with current industry standards. Previous requirements for AMT schools were almost 50 years old. The new rule will enable schools to teach students with a curriculum that incorporates new innovations and technologies, as well.

Maguire said the new rule emphasizes competency and proficiency over time-based training requirements that have guided aviation maintenance schools for nearly half a century.

“Schools, I think, are still trying to get their arms around [the rule change] and we'll see a lot of changes probably next year,” she said. “The industry should be very pumped because this does mean that they should be getting higher quality candidates and there are opportunities to cut training time as well.”

English noted there are around 180 FAA-certified aviation maintenance schools in the U.S.

“Believe it or not, the airframe and powerplant curriculum has not significantly changed since the 1960s,” he explained. The new rule also emphasizes technological advances, “so our students will learn [advanced] avionics as well.”

Avionics maintenance is more “plug-and-play” than airframe or engine maintenance, English said, requiring a high level of competence in computer-driven MRO work.

Regardless of the recruiting efforts and curriculum changes, however, the AMT shortage is expected to be a challenge MRO providers and airlines will likely have to grapple with for the rest of this decade and beyond.