A Long Winding Road to Sustainability: Can the Aviation Industry Surpass Expectations?
At Farnborough, stakeholders from the aviation community came together to talk about how they can make aviation more sustainable and greener in the future. At the Sustainable Skies Summit, the message was clear: even though progress is being made, there is a sense that it is a race against time, and one in which the industry needs to speed up.
Airlines
No one is underestimating the scale of the task ahead for the industry. Jonathan Counsell, Group Head of Sustainability, IAG said that aviation has rebounded impressively, saying airports are now “packed” and that one of the key jobs the industry has is preserving flight for future generations. He calls the battle to make aviation sustainable “the most important journey” we have made yet. “We do have to address our carbon emissions. We don’t have time. We have to move faster. Most energy transitions take 60 years. At best we have 20 years,” he said.
“Our industry has a strong record of collaboration. For example, ICAO’s ambition to reach Net Zero by 2050. We need sustainable aviation fuel [SAF]. There are an increasing number of solutions. We are actually talking about hydrogen electric aircraft. We need everything. Electric, hydrogen aircraft will play an important role for short-haul travel; SAF for medium- and long-term flights.”
A lot of speakers described the move to green, clean aviation as the start of a long journey. It is clear that airlines need to do more. But the revolution has clearly started. Lahiru Ranasinghe, Senior Sustainability Lead, easyJet said the airline is doing things for the short-, medium-, and long-term. In the short-term, easyJet has signed an agreement with Airbus for software to help efficiently manage carbon emissions. In the medium-term, Ranasinghe said a big focus for easyJet was on SAFs. easyJet has signed a binding contract with its SAF supplier. Lastly, it will work with its engine supplier Rolls Royce to bring about improvements here. “Two things that keep us up at night when talking about this [are] scale and risk. To go from a fascinating technology to realistic, deployable technology, it needs to scale up fast. For that to happen, we need investment to flow in. So, there is a financial risk. To scale up, how do we bring these technologies down the risk curve?” added Ranasinghe.
Luis Gallego, CEO, IAG said he felt there was “a lack of competitiveness in SAF.” However, at the same time, he felt good progress was being made. He pointed to the fact that the UK was investing £165 million ($204.85 million USD) to construct five SAF plants, although he said that to reach a target of using 10% SAF by 2030, there is a big gap that needs to be filled over the next few years in order to reach this initial target.
One of the messages that came out of the event was that regardless of the premium an airline would pay for SAF, they are more than ready to pay for it. Willie Walsh, the ex-CEO of British Airways—and now the CEO of IATA—was one of the main speakers at the event. He said one of the key messages from IATA is that the industry has “given the largest demand signals the industry has even seen.”
He admitted that it had been “disappointing” we haven’t seen a greater commitment to the production of SAFs. “We have seen a strong demand. We are getting there. There is a desire from the industry to use SAFs. We used every single drop of SAF last year; we will this year and next year, even though it is a significant premium (compared to fossil fuels). 10% of SAF will be used by 2030 compared to other fuels. We need to get that production going. We need to see greater production. We may miss the 10% target by 2030 slightly; we may exceed it.”
Walsh believes the “carrot approach” will work here rather than the stick approach. He points to the U.S. government providing significant incentives here. He called for governments to do more, invest more, so the industry could really “get going” here. He said governments have taken “billions” out of the industry through APD (Air Passenger Duty), a tax on air passengers, and now was the time to help make good on these initiatives. “What we are doing here is good for the environment. We are not asking to be treated in a special way, just in a similar way. The demand is there. I think having a 2050 Net Zero target is a good start. I think the next thing will be milestones along the way. The next bit will be more evidence of various pathways to get to Net Zero. The stick has failed. We need to use the carrot,” said Walsh.
Controversial Opinions
The industry is keenly aware that to the outside world, the general perception is that not enough is being done or that the industry is not moving fast enough. Many new players looking to provide solutions here are starting to emerge. Given that climate change is perhaps the number one issue that concerns young people, you can perhaps expect to see more young people get involved in this area.
However, not everybody is convinced that magic new solutions will emerge here. Haldane Dodd, Executive Director, Air Transport Action Group said the industry had seen a “Silicon Valley style hype in this area.” He cautions about some of the talk going on here. He said, “We have seen a number of new entrants try to disrupt the sector. I am not knocking their intent, or the innovative approaches taking place here. All avenues should be explored. Some startups say that hydrogen is the only solution. I think this is dangerous talk. Some are promising the world while demonizing SAFs. Aviation is a collaborative effort. It is a mind-boggling global dance that goes on each and every day.”
He also called on the energy companies to do more, saying that the ten largest oil companies made combined hundreds of billions of profits last year but seem reluctant to invest in SAFs. “With their profits, they could fund years of SAF development. Most of the energy sector is nowhere to be seen.”
Technology Solutions
Nikhil Sachdeva, Principal, Global Lead for Sustainable Aviation, Roland Berger said despite the industry’s desire to move faster, there are realistic forecasts out there that still hold aviation responsible for 12 to 18% percent of CO2 emissions by 2050. That even takes into consideration the move to SAF and other solutions. He pointed to the fact that carbon emissions rose in 2022, although some thought the peak would be in 2019. He speculated that the industry could actually peak in terms of carbon emissions later in this decade. “Net Zero is the goal, but it is not enough. Our goal needs to go beyond Net Zero to True Zero. We need some kind of revolution; it could be a fuel revolution, or a fleet revolution—ideally, both,” he said.
Sachdeva calls for more global cooperation and emphasizes the need for a financially stable, focused, and growing industry. He highlights the importance of the sector’s continuing profitability while massive investments are being made. He adds, “We need different solutions. Can we really expect all flowers to bloom? Can we really invest in everything? Should we invest in everything? Technology is the key solution. That doesn’t mean we don’t need to see new business models. We need to implement what we can today. We need significant funding, and things like cross-value chain coordination, for example.”
Like many others, Jimmy Samartzis, CEO, LanzaJet, said he believes that the industry is at “an inflection point” and that right now, multiple pieces of the puzzle are coming together. He said we are finally beginning to see some meaningful use of SAFs, but to get to 10% usage (by 2030), he said this was a “tall order.” More needs to be done. He said governments and the finance sector need to “show up” here as the industry is “nowhere where it needs to be” with investments in infrastructure much needed.
To install a number of SAF plants will cost millions, if not billions, of dollars. With the global airline industry consuming around 100 billion gallons of fuel annually, the need to invest in this infrastructure becomes more and more pressing. “The more we can do this sooner, the better. If you believe this is a real issue, you need to do something now. We have an opportunity to tackle this issue. Is 10% enough? Let’s make it 20%. There is technology we need to focus on deploying today,” he added.
Laia Barbara, Lead, Aviation Decarbonization, World Economic Forum said there needs to be a rapid escalation in the building of SAF plants. She said the industry needs 300 new SAF plants to be built by 2030. In the next 24 months, all investment decisions need to take place, given that there is usually a five-year lead time to build these plants. This projection seems optimistic at best.
Regulator View
One of the main speakers at the event was Sir Stephen Hillier, Chair, Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), the UK’s main regulator when it comes to aviation. He says the CAA has a “vital role” when it comes to reducing the environmental impact of aviation. He said the CAA wants to take a “leading role” rather than “THE leading role here.” The CAA is making progress here. Last year, the regulator developed its first sustainability strategy, and it will continue to evolve over time. It will also publish its first Environmental Aviation review later this year. Cooperation will be key here.
Hillier added, “We need to take the environment into consideration when making decisions. We need to be better connected on sustainability. We are working closely with the government. We are closely involved internationally. We support the work of ICAO. We are working on bilateral and multilateral agreements. We are strengthening our approach to working with technology innovators. We are aware that the regulatory framework will need to adapt so that it can work with new technologies involved in sustainability initiatives. The CAA has a vital role to play. This includes the delivery of properly sustainable aviation and achieving the government’s target of net zero by 2050.”
It is clear that sustainability will be a huge topic going forward. At our Connected Aviation Intelligence (CAI) event later this year in Denver, we will take a look at the relationship between sustainability and the connected aircraft and how a “connected” infrastructure can help airlines and the industry in reaching ambitious targets, and even overachieving. With many saying the industry has 20 years at best, the industry has little time to lose. It already feels it is a little behind, particularly in the building of SAF plants. Hopefully, it can defy expectations and lead a revolution in air travel that means future generations can travel more safely, knowing they are not part of an industry that is one of the largest emitters we have seen in previous decades. It is a battle all of us hope they win.
eVTOLs and the Drive to Sustainability
In a panel titled “The Case for Sustainability in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) Industry,” speakers examined the relationship between this exciting new market and sustainability. The global eVTOL market could grow to be worth tens of billions of dollars in the next decade. Daniel Galhardo Gomes, Strategic Marketing Director at Embraer, said Embraer has been testing these technologies in places like Rio de Janeiro and Chicago. He said that to remove emissions from the skies, we need to go further with technology. If these technologies prove successful, Gomes believes companies like Embraer can quickly scale up these technology solutions, and provide greater “green” flying options.
Lirio Liu, Executive Director of Aircraft Certification, FAA said she believes the public acceptance of such technologies will be strong, but that the main challenges facing the FAA are keeping pace with innovations like this and making sure safety standards are durable. With Los Angeles hosting the Summer Olympics in 2028, Liu believes such technologies “will become the norm.” She said the FAA is committed to making such technologies like eVTOLs safe for people.
Trevor Woods, Director of Regulatory Affairs, Vertical Aerospace, a new startup in this area, said the company had already seen 1,400 pre-orders for its aircraft, and said this form of travel is not just for “elites.” He also hailed its green credentials. He said, “We are aiming to compete on the levels of taxis and trains. It is a zero-emission aircraft. It will be better than fossil fuel powered cars or planes. The products we are developing will be very useful and viable at the start. We are on our third prototype/demonstrator. We are aiming for a very viable product at launch.”
